Panthers vs Chiefs — Week 10, 2016
The Panthers took over tied at 17 with 4:25 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 17, Chiefs 20. Chiefs won 20-17 — the drive turned it over.
Panthers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 4:25 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 55.9% for Panthers. Our model starts at 54.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:25) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 43-F.Whittaker to CAR 34 for 9 yards (92-D.Poe).
- (3:47) 43-F.Whittaker right guard to CAR 41 for 7 yards (53-R.Wilson).
- (3:14) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 19-T.Ginn to CAR 48 for 7 yards (20-S.Nelson).
- (2:36) 43-F.Whittaker up the middle to CAR 46 for -2 yards (55-D.Ford).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short left to 13-K.Benjamin.
- (1:56) 9-G.Gano punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.88 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.26 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.88 pts |
| QB keep | +0.69 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.55 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.39 pts |
| Curl route | +0.31 pts |
| Quick out | +0.16 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.04 pts |
| Outside run | -0.00 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.22 pts |
| Play action | -0.27 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.64 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.84 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.39 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.03 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.37 pts |
| End-around | -2.62 pts |
| Spike it | -2.94 pts |
| Deep post | -2.98 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.26 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.26 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.