Panthers vs Buccaneers — Week 17, 2016
The Panthers took over trailing 17-10 with 3:07 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
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What really happened
Final: Panthers 16, Buccaneers 17. Buccaneers won 17-16 — the drive scored.
Panthers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 26, 3:07 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 11.9% for Panthers. Our model starts at 10.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:07) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 13-K.Benjamin pushed ob at TB 27 for 47 yards (24-B.Grimes).
- (2:57) (Shotgun) 43-F.Whittaker right end to TB 19 for 8 yards (30-B.McDougald).
- (2:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep right to 11-B.Bersin (24-B.Grimes).
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 43-F.Whittaker up the middle to TB 19 for no gain (93-G.McCoy, 58-K.Alexander).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 88-G.Olsen to TB 16 for 3 yards (30-B.McDougald).
- (1:24) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 35-M.Tolbert (58-K.Alexander).
- (1:20) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep right to 11-B.Bersin (24-B.Grimes).
- (1:13) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton up the middle to TB 18 for -2 yards (54-L.David).
- (:46) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 13-K.Benjamin to TB 5 for 13 yards (54-L.David).
- (:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 13-K.Benjamin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 1-C.Newton pass to 88-G.Olsen is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.89 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.13 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.89 pts |
| Deep post | +0.79 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.62 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.56 pts |
| QB keep | +0.47 pts |
| Play action | +0.36 pts |
| Quick out | +0.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.19 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.18 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.18 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.29 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.36 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.41 pts |
| Outside run | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -0.95 pts |
| End-around | -0.98 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.03 pts |
| Spike it | -1.13 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.