Saints vs Buccaneers — Week 16, 2016
The Saints took over leading 31-24 with 1:59 left, 1st & 10 at the Buccaneers 45, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Saints 31, Buccaneers 24. Saints won 31-24 — the drive time expired.
Saints ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Near midfield, 1:59 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.4% for Saints. Our model starts at 97.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:59) 22-M.Ingram right guard to TB 38 for 7 yards (37-K.Tandy).
- (1:55) 22-M.Ingram left guard to TB 36 for 2 yards (93-G.McCoy).
- (1:51) 22-M.Ingram right guard to TB 26 for 10 yards (24-B.Grimes).
- (1:44) 9-D.Brees kneels to TB 27 for -1 yards.
- (1:06) 9-D.Brees kneels to TB 28 for -1 yards.
- (:38) 9-D.Brees kneels to TB 29 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.61 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.52 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.61 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.75 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.91 pts |
| Quick out | -1.26 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.27 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.28 pts |
| QB keep | -1.64 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.68 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.73 pts |
| Play action | -3.13 pts |
| Curl route | -3.56 pts |
| End-around | -5.56 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.65 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.61 pts |
| Deep post | -9.48 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.54 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.52 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.