Jets vs Bills — Week 2, 2016
The Jets took over leading 37-31 with 1:15 left, 1st & 10 at their own 45, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Jets 37, Bills 31. Jets won 37-31 — the drive turned it over.
Jets ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 45, 1:15 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.4% for Jets. Our model starts at 96.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:15) 22-M.Forte left tackle to NYJ 47 for 2 yards (53-Z.Brown).
- (1:10) 22-M.Forte right tackle to 50 for 3 yards (53-Z.Brown, 28-R.Darby).
- (1:03) 22-M.Forte left tackle to 50 for no gain (57-L.Alexander).
- (:18) 4-L.Edwards punts 35 yards to BUF 15, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.69 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.35 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.69 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.71 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.80 pts |
| Quick out | -1.17 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.19 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.21 pts |
| QB keep | -1.52 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.57 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.69 pts |
| Play action | -3.01 pts |
| Curl route | -3.40 pts |
| End-around | -5.44 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.53 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.47 pts |
| Deep post | -9.29 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.39 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.35 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.