Chiefs vs Raiders — Week 14, 2016
The Chiefs took over leading 21-13 with 1:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 19, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 21, Raiders 13. Chiefs won 21-13 — the drive time expired.
Chiefs ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 19, 1:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.4% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 96.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:56) 32-S.Ware right end to KC 27 for 8 yards (20-N.Allen).
- (1:13) 32-S.Ware left end to KC 27 for no gain (53-M.Smith).
- (1:07) 32-S.Ware up the middle to KC 29 for 2 yards (51-B.Irvin). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (1:01) 11-A.Smith kneels to KC 28 for -1 yards.
- (:23) 11-A.Smith kneels to KC 27 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.79 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.41 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.79 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -0.72 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.87 pts |
| Quick out | -1.23 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.25 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.26 pts |
| QB keep | -1.59 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.63 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.70 pts |
| Play action | -3.07 pts |
| Curl route | -3.47 pts |
| End-around | -5.48 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.58 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.53 pts |
| Deep post | -9.35 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.44 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.41 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.