Packers vs Texans — Week 13, 2016
The Packers took over leading 21-13 with 1:50 left, 1st & 10 at the Texans 48, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Packers 21, Texans 13. Packers won 21-13 — the drive turned it over.
Packers ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Near midfield, 1:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 99.1% for Packers. Our model starts at 98.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:50) 32-C.Michael left guard to HOU 47 for 1 yard (56-B.Cushing).
- (1:44) 32-C.Michael up the middle to HOU 46 for 1 yard (94-A.Smith).
- (:58) 32-C.Michael left end to HOU 48 for -2 yards (98-D.Reader; 59-W.Mercilus).
- (:12) 10-J.Schum punts 36 yards to HOU 12, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.48 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.65 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.73 pts |
| Inside run | -0.80 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.99 pts |
| Quick out | -1.32 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.33 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.33 pts |
| QB keep | -1.74 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.77 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.79 pts |
| Play action | -3.23 pts |
| Curl route | -3.68 pts |
| End-around | -5.67 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.75 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.72 pts |
| Deep post | -9.62 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.67 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.65 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.