Falcons vs Panthers — Week 4, 2016
The Falcons took over leading 41-33 with 1:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 48, Panthers 33. Falcons won 48-33 — the drive turned it over.
Falcons ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 1:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.7% for Falcons. Our model starts at 97.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:53) 24-D.Freeman right guard to ATL 27 for 2 yards (99-K.Short).
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 19 for -8 yards (99-K.Short).
- (1:42) (Shotgun) 24-D.Freeman left guard to ATL 25 for 6 yards (59-L.Kuechly).
- (1:37) 5-M.Bosher punts 59 yards to CAR 16, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-T.Ginn ran ob at CAR 24 for 8 yards (53-L.Reynolds).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.68 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.46 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.68 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -0.72 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.88 pts |
| Quick out | -1.23 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.24 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.25 pts |
| QB keep | -1.60 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.65 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.70 pts |
| Play action | -3.09 pts |
| Curl route | -3.50 pts |
| End-around | -5.51 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.61 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.56 pts |
| Deep post | -9.41 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.48 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.46 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.