Patriots vs Ravens — Week 14, 2016
The Patriots took over leading 30-23 with 2:01 left, 1st & 10 at the Ravens 47, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 30, Ravens 23. Patriots won 30-23 — the drive time expired.
Patriots ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Near midfield, 2:01 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.4% for Patriots. Our model starts at 97.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:01) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman to BAL 39 for 8 yards (21-L.Webb). NE 12-Brady 9th career 400-yard game, 4th most all-time.
- (1:55) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 29-L.Blount right guard to BAL 34 for 5 yards (21-L.Webb; 93-L.Guy).
- (1:50) 29-L.Blount left tackle to BAL 29 for 5 yards (21-L.Webb; 50-A.McClellan).
- (1:44) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 29-L.Blount left end to BAL 25 for 4 yards (32-E.Weddle; 57-C.Mosley).
- (:59) 29-L.Blount right tackle to BAL 25 for no gain (57-C.Mosley; 91-M.Judon).
- (:13) 29-L.Blount right tackle to BAL 21 for 4 yards (91-M.Judon; 50-A.McClellan). Tom Brady 100th career home victory.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.64 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.50 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.64 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.74 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.90 pts |
| Quick out | -1.25 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.26 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.27 pts |
| QB keep | -1.63 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.67 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.72 pts |
| Play action | -3.12 pts |
| Curl route | -3.54 pts |
| End-around | -5.54 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.64 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.59 pts |
| Deep post | -9.45 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.52 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.50 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.