Buccaneers vs Falcons — Week 1, 2016
The Buccaneers took over leading 31-24 with 4:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 31, Falcons 24. Buccaneers won 31-24 — the drive turned it over.
Buccaneers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 17, 4:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 90.3% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 88.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:50) 22-D.Martin left tackle to TB 26 for 9 yards (37-R.Allen, 36-K.Ishmael).
- (4:06) 22-D.Martin right guard to TB 30 for 4 yards (21-D.Trufant).
- (3:22) 11-A.Humphries right end pushed ob at TB 37 for 7 yards (37-R.Allen; 23-R.Alford).
- (3:14) 22-D.Martin right tackle to TB 37 for no gain (90-D.Shelby).
- (3:10) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 34-C.Sims to TB 42 for 5 yards (21-D.Trufant).
- (3:04) 34-C.Sims left end to TB 44 for 2 yards (95-J.Babineaux). ATL-50-B.Reed was injured during the play.
- (2:27) 22-D.Martin right tackle to TB 47 for 3 yards (45-D.Jones).
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston right tackle to 50 for 3 yards (59-D.Campbell).
- (2:00) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to ATL 9, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.53 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.43 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.53 pts |
| Outside run | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.67 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.69 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.74 pts |
| Inside run | -0.75 pts |
| Quick out | -1.17 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.21 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.25 pts |
| QB keep | -1.33 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.40 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.65 pts |
| Play action | -2.70 pts |
| Curl route | -2.94 pts |
| End-around | -4.93 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.11 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.94 pts |
| Deep post | -8.35 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.63 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.43 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.