Chargers vs Browns — Week 16, 2016
The Chargers took over trailing 20-17 with 4:49 left, 1st & 10 at the Browns 33, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 17, Browns 20. Browns won 20-17 — the drive missed field goal.
Chargers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. In Browns territory, 4:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 47.7% for Chargers. Our model starts at 50.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:49) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 85-A.Gates pushed ob at CLE 13 for 20 yards (58-C.Kirksey).
- (4:42) 36-R.Hillman left end to CLE 14 for -1 yards (22-T.Williams Sr.).
- (4:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short middle to 16-Ty.Williams (21-J.Taylor).
- (3:54) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short middle to 15-D.Inman. Penalty on LAC, Illegal Formation, declined.
- (3:49) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-J.Meder), Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens, declared dead at CLE 22.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.02 pts), and the weakest was Field goal (-6.27 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.02 pts |
| QB keep | +0.87 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.74 pts |
| Curl route | +0.61 pts |
| Quick out | +0.30 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.18 pts |
| Outside run | +0.16 pts |
| Play action | -0.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -0.69 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.20 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.66 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.96 pts |
| End-around | -2.24 pts |
| Deep post | -2.38 pts |
| Spike it | -2.93 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.71 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.61 pts |
| Field goal | -6.27 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.