Ravens vs Jaguars — Week 3, 2016
The Ravens took over trailing 17-16 with 4:08 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 19, Jaguars 17. Ravens won 19-17 — the drive turnover.
Ravens ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 29, 4:08 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 44.6% for Ravens. Our model starts at 49.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:08) 28-T.West up the middle to BAL 30 for 1 yard (51-P.Posluszny).
- (3:27) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle intended for 29-J.Forsett INTERCEPTED by 51-P.Posluszny (56-D.Fowler) at BAL 33. 51-P.Posluszny to BAL 33 for no gain (66-R.Jensen). Penalty on BAL-89-S.Smith, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. Penalty on JAX-20-J.Ramsey, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.05 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.56 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.05 pts |
| QB keep | +0.88 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.79 pts |
| Curl route | +0.70 pts |
| Quick out | +0.30 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.18 pts |
| Play action | +0.01 pts |
| Outside run | -0.08 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.11 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.93 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.43 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.60 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.89 pts |
| Deep post | -2.25 pts |
| End-around | -2.43 pts |
| Spike it | -2.97 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.70 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.56 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.