Lions vs Titans — Week 2, 2016
The Lions took over trailing 16-15 with 1:13 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Lions 15, Titans 16. Titans won 16-15 — the drive turnover.
Lions ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 1:13 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 50.3% for Lions. Our model starts at 47.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:13) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 80-A.Boldin.
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 16 for -9 yards (98-B.Orakpo).
- (1:04) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 85-E.Ebron to DET 45 for 29 yards (21-D.Searcy).
- (:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 15-G.Tate.
- (:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 25-T.Riddick to DET 45 for no gain (24-D.Stafford).
- (:28) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 85-E.Ebron INTERCEPTED by 20-P.Cox at 50. 20-P.Cox to DET 47 for 3 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.09 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.25 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.09 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.94 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.85 pts |
| QB keep | +1.71 pts |
| Play action | +1.01 pts |
| Quick out | +0.97 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.82 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.41 pts |
| Outside run | -0.21 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.44 pts |
| Deep post | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -1.21 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.66 pts |
| End-around | -2.24 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.61 pts |
| Spike it | -3.02 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.25 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.