Commanders vs Eagles — Week 14, 2016
The Commanders took over trailing 22-21 with 4:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 23, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 27, Eagles 22. Commanders won 27-22 — the drive scored.
Commanders ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 23, 4:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 44.9% for Commanders. Our model starts at 47.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:52) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 88-P.Garcon (21-L.McKelvin).
- (4:49) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 80-J.Crowder (23-R.McLeod). Washington challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 80-J.Crowder to PHI 44 for 33 yards (31-J.Mills).
- (4:23) 8-K.Cousins scrambles right end to PHI 38 for 6 yards (91-F.Cox).
- (3:44) 32-R.Kelley up the middle to PHI 35 for 3 yards (96-B.Logan).
- (3:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 25-C.Thompson [98-C.Barwin].
- (2:59) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 88-P.Garcon to PHI 29 for 6 yards (21-L.McKelvin).
- (2:16) 32-R.Kelley up the middle to PHI 25 for 4 yards (23-R.McLeod; 97-D.Vaeao).
- (2:00) 25-C.Thompson left end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-K.Cousins pass to 86-J.Reed is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.82 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.48 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.82 pts |
| QB keep | +0.66 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.54 pts |
| Curl route | +0.45 pts |
| Quick out | +0.13 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.01 pts |
| Play action | -0.19 pts |
| Outside run | -0.23 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.71 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -1.02 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.71 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.98 pts |
| Deep post | -2.33 pts |
| End-around | -2.45 pts |
| Spike it | -2.95 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.67 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.48 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.