Eagles vs Cowboys — Week 8, 2016
The Eagles took over tied at 23 with 3:04 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 23, Cowboys 23. Tied 23-23 — the drive turned it over.
Eagles ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 3:04 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 47.7% for Eagles. Our model starts at 57.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:04) 43-D.Sproles right end to PHI 33 for 8 yards (27-J.Wilcox).
- (2:21) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 81-J.Matthews to PHI 31 for -2 yards (39-B.Carr).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to 47-T.Burton (39-B.Carr).
- (1:54) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 29 yards to DAL 40, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-47-T.Burton.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.25 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.19 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.25 pts |
| QB keep | +1.03 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.95 pts |
| Curl route | +0.76 pts |
| Quick out | +0.44 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.31 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.15 pts |
| Outside run | +0.15 pts |
| Play action | +0.06 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -0.77 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.77 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.13 pts |
| End-around | -2.58 pts |
| Deep post | -2.71 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.16 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.19 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.