Giants vs Eagles — Week 16, 2016
The Giants took over trailing 24-19 with 4:15 left, 1st & 10 at their own 27, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Giants 19, Eagles 24. Eagles won 24-19 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Giants ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 27, 4:15 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 22.8% for Giants. Our model starts at 22.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:15) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 28-P.Perkins to NYG 36 for 9 yards (21-L.McKelvin) [55-B.Graham]. PHI-58-J.Hicks was injured during the play.
- (3:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-P.Perkins right guard to NYG 43 for 7 yards (27-M.Jenkins).
- (3:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 13-O.Beckham to PHI 48 for 9 yards (53-N.Bradham).
- (2:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-P.Perkins up the middle to PHI 41 for 7 yards (55-B.Graham).
- (2:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 13-O.Beckham to PHI 35 for 6 yards (21-L.McKelvin).
- (2:25) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete deep right to 82-R.Lewis (21-L.McKelvin) [75-V.Curry].
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 13-O.Beckham to PHI 31 for 4 yards (22-N.Carroll). PHI-22-N.Carroll was injured during the play. Philadelphia challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 13-O.Beckham to PHI 32 for 3 yards (22-N.Carroll). PHI-22-N.Carroll was injured during the play.
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 87-S.Shepard (22-N.Carroll).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.12 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.06 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.12 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.85 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.84 pts |
| QB keep | +0.75 pts |
| Play action | +0.41 pts |
| Quick out | +0.32 pts |
| Deep post | +0.24 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.23 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.20 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.27 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Outside run | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -1.18 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.28 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.38 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.41 pts |
| End-around | -1.50 pts |
| Spike it | -2.06 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.