Jets vs Patriots — Week 12, 2016
The Jets took over trailing 22-17 with 1:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Jets 17, Patriots 22. Patriots won 22-17 — the drive turnover.
Jets ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 1:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 22.9% for Jets. Our model starts at 15.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 89-J.Marshall pushed ob at NYJ 30 for 5 yards (26-L.Ryan).
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick sacked at NYJ 23 for -7 yards (95-C.Long). FUMBLES (95-C.Long), RECOVERED by NE-98-T.Flowers at NYJ 31. 98-T.Flowers to NYJ 34 for -3 yards (29-B.Powell).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.48 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.56 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.48 pts |
| Deep post | +1.32 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.07 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.97 pts |
| QB keep | +0.83 pts |
| Play action | +0.70 pts |
| Quick out | +0.46 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.44 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.43 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.38 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.11 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.30 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.81 pts |
| Inside run | -1.21 pts |
| End-around | -1.23 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Spike it | -1.56 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.