Colts vs Texans — Week 14, 2016
The Colts took over trailing 22-17 with 2:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Colts 17, Texans 22. Texans won 22-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Colts ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 2:47 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 21.1% for Colts. Our model starts at 16.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 13-T.Hilton pushed ob at IND 39 for 14 yards (25-K.Jackson).
- (2:41) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 33-R.Turbin to IND 49 for 10 yards (25-K.Jackson).
- (2:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short left to 80-C.Rogers (35-E.Pleasant) [35-E.Pleasant].
- (2:06) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 13-T.Hilton to HOU 48 for 3 yards (25-K.Jackson).
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 13-T.Hilton to HOU 42 for 6 yards (56-B.Cushing).
- (1:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short right to 33-R.Turbin [75-V.Wilfork].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.33 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.62 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.33 pts |
| Deep post | +1.00 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.97 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.90 pts |
| QB keep | +0.78 pts |
| Play action | +0.61 pts |
| Quick out | +0.41 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.33 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.27 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.24 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.55 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.61 pts |
| Outside run | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -1.12 pts |
| End-around | -1.22 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.26 pts |
| Spike it | -1.62 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.