Bills vs Dolphins — Week 7, 2016
The Bills took over trailing 21-17 with 3:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Bills 25, Dolphins 28. Dolphins won 28-25 — the drive turned it over.
Bills ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 3:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.7% for Bills. Our model starts at 25.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:56) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete short right to 85-C.Clay [93-N.Suh].
- (3:51) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep right to 19-W.Powell.
- (3:44) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep right to 88-M.Goodwin (24-I.Abdul-Quddus). BUF-88-M.Goodwin was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
- (3:38) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 54 yards to MIA 21, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 14-J.Landry to MIA 30 for 9 yards (50-R.Humber; 65-G.Sanborn).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.27 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.27 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.27 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.00 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.97 pts |
| QB keep | +0.88 pts |
| Play action | +0.49 pts |
| Quick out | +0.39 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.29 pts |
| Deep post | +0.18 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.00 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.24 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Outside run | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -1.20 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.44 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.46 pts |
| End-around | -1.61 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.66 pts |
| Spike it | -2.27 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.