Steelers vs Cowboys — Week 10, 2016
The Steelers took over trailing 29-24 with 1:55 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 30, Cowboys 35. Cowboys won 35-30 — the drive scored.
Steelers ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 1:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 22.9% for Steelers. Our model starts at 15.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 84-A.Brown to PIT 28 for 3 yards (23-L.McFadden, 50-S.Lee).
- (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 89-L.Green to PIT 38 for 10 yards (31-B.Jones).
- (1:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 26-L.Bell to DAL 39 for 23 yards (38-J.Heath, 27-J.Wilcox).
- (1:04) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 81-J.James to DAL 15 for 24 yards (38-J.Heath).
- (:43) (No Huddle) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 84-A.Brown for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 7-B.Roethlisberger pass to 84-A.Brown is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT. 39-B.Carr intercepted the try attempt. ATTEMPT FAILS. Tackled by 72-Foster.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.48 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.56 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.48 pts |
| Deep post | +1.32 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.07 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.97 pts |
| QB keep | +0.83 pts |
| Play action | +0.70 pts |
| Quick out | +0.46 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.44 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.43 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.38 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.11 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.29 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.81 pts |
| Inside run | -1.21 pts |
| End-around | -1.23 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Spike it | -1.56 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.