Seahawks vs Saints — Week 8, 2016
The Seahawks took over trailing 25-20 with 1:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 32, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 20, Saints 25. Saints won 25-20 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Seahawks ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 32, 1:50 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 22.3% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 15.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles up the middle to SEA 37 for 5 yards (52-C.Robertson).
- (1:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 22-C.Prosise to NO 49 for 14 yards (32-K.Vaccaro). Pass 3, YAC 11
- (1:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-D.Baldwin to NO 45 for 4 yards (31-J.Byrd). Pass 4, YAC 0
- (:37) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right [94-C.Jordan].
- (:33) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 89-D.Baldwin to NO 18 for 27 yards (46-K.Crawley). Pass 7, YAC 20
- (:17) 3-R.Wilson spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:16) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 22-C.Prosise to NO 10 for 8 yards (32-K.Vaccaro). Pass 4, YAC 4
- (:03) 3-R.Wilson spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:02) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 15-J.Kearse.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.56 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.60 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.56 pts |
| Deep post | +1.39 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.14 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.03 pts |
| QB keep | +0.89 pts |
| Play action | +0.76 pts |
| Quick out | +0.50 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.48 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.47 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.42 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.14 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.30 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.78 pts |
| Inside run | -1.20 pts |
| End-around | -1.22 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Spike it | -1.60 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.