Bills vs Dolphins — Week 16, 2016
The Bills took over trailing 28-24 with 4:00 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Bills 31, Dolphins 34. Dolphins won 34-31 — the drive scored.
Bills ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 11, 4:00 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.6% for Bills. Our model starts at 24.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:00) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy right end to BUF 18 for 7 yards (31-M.Thomas, 42-S.Paysinger).
- (3:28) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy right guard to BUF 20 for 2 yards (30-B.Rambo, 93-N.Suh).
- (2:55) 35-M.Gillislee left end to BUF 45 for 25 yards (31-M.Thomas).
- (2:17) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor scrambles right end pushed ob at BUF 48 for 3 yards (97-J.Phillips).
- (2:09) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy left tackle to MIA 41 for 11 yards (46-N.Hewitt).
- (2:00) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 10-R.Woods pushed ob at MIA 7 for 34 yards (30-B.Rambo). Flea-flicker, pass after pitch-back from L.McCoy. Caught at MIA 17, near sideline after crossing from middle.
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy left guard to MIA 8 for -1 yards (30-B.Rambo).
- (1:40) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy right guard to MIA 4 for 4 yards (30-B.Rambo).
- (1:32) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor left end pushed ob at MIA 7 for -3 yards (30-B.Rambo; 46-N.Hewitt). Designed rush, receivers in blocking mode.
- (1:25) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short right to 85-C.Clay for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 2 yds. into end zone. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (-0.66 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-3.04 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | -0.66 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.72 pts |
| Deep post | -1.01 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.02 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.05 pts |
| Play action | -1.21 pts |
| Quick out | -1.35 pts |
| QB keep | -1.35 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.45 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.46 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.54 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.59 pts |
| Outside run | -1.98 pts |
| Inside run | -1.99 pts |
| Spike it | -2.18 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.25 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.57 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.62 pts |
| End-around | -3.04 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.