Jaguars vs Packers — Week 1, 2016
The Jaguars took over trailing 27-23 with 3:17 left, 1st & 10 at their own 37, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 23, Packers 27. Packers won 27-23 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Jaguars ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 37, 3:17 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 26.5% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 27.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:17) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 89-M.Lewis to JAX 48 for 11 yards (36-L.Gunter).
- (2:39) 24-T.Yeldon left end to JAX 48 for no gain (37-S.Shields).
- (2:14) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete deep left to 15-A.Robinson.
- (2:08) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 24-T.Yeldon to GB 46 for 6 yards (48-J.Thomas).
- (1:43) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 24-T.Yeldon to GB 45 for 6 yards (42-M.Burnett).
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep middle to 15-A.Robinson to GB 23 for 22 yards (21-H.Clinton-Dix). FUMBLES (21-H.Clinton-Dix), and recovers at GB 23. 15-A.Robinson to GB 23 for no gain (21-H.Clinton-Dix).
- (:52) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete deep left to 15-A.Robinson (24-Q.Rollins).
- (:47) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 13-R.Greene to GB 14 for 9 yards (24-Q.Rollins).
- (:27) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short middle to 13-R.Greene.
- (:23) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 88-A.Hurns to GB 15 for -1 yards (23-D.Randall).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.58 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.35 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.58 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.23 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.22 pts |
| QB keep | +1.09 pts |
| Play action | +0.72 pts |
| Quick out | +0.55 pts |
| Deep post | +0.48 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.44 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.04 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.13 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -1.18 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.35 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.43 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.54 pts |
| End-around | -1.57 pts |
| Spike it | -2.35 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.