Rams vs Lions — Week 6, 2016
The Rams took over trailing 31-28 with 1:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Rams 28, Lions 31. Lions won 31-28 — the drive turnover.
Rams ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 1:29 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.4% for Rams. Our model starts at 25.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:29) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass short right to 83-B.Quick to LA 29 for 4 yards (31-R.Bush).
- (1:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass deep middle intended for 88-L.Kendricks INTERCEPTED by 31-R.Bush at DET 45. 31-R.Bush to DET 45 for no gain.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.16 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.27 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.16 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.66 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.55 pts |
| Deep post | +1.42 pts |
| QB keep | +1.39 pts |
| Play action | +1.12 pts |
| Quick out | +0.80 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.68 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.52 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.46 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.32 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Outside run | -0.66 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.81 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.82 pts |
| Inside run | -1.34 pts |
| End-around | -1.52 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Spike it | -2.27 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.