Panthers vs Raiders — Week 12, 2016
The Panthers took over trailing 35-32 with 1:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 32, Raiders 35. Raiders won 35-32 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Panthers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 1:45 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 26.7% for Panthers. Our model starts at 26.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:45) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 88-G.Olsen to CAR 45 for 20 yards (32-A.Hamilton).
- (1:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 17-D.Funchess pushed ob at LV 44 for 11 yards (21-S.Smith).
- (1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 19-T.Ginn [52-K.Mack].
- (1:10) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right [51-B.Irvin].
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep middle to 88-G.Olsen.
- (1:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton sacked at CAR 47 for -9 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], RECOVERED by LV-52-K.Mack at CAR 45. 52-K.Mack to CAR 45 for no gain (79-C.Scott).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.11 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.37 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.11 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.63 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.54 pts |
| QB keep | +1.38 pts |
| Deep post | +1.21 pts |
| Play action | +1.08 pts |
| Quick out | +0.78 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.66 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.39 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.33 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.30 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Outside run | -0.62 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.99 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.06 pts |
| Inside run | -1.33 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| End-around | -1.58 pts |
| Spike it | -2.37 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.