Browns vs Ravens — Week 2, 2016
The Browns took over trailing 25-20 with 2:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Browns 20, Ravens 25. Ravens won 25-20 — the drive turnover.
Browns ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 2:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.9% for Browns. Our model starts at 17.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:53) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short right to 29-D.Johnson to CLE 30 for 5 yards (21-L.Webb).
- (2:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short middle to 82-G.Barnidge to CLE 36 for 6 yards (54-Z.Orr).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short left to 16-A.Hawkins to BAL 48 for 16 yards (32-E.Weddle).
- (1:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short right to 11-T.Pryor to BAL 47 for 1 yard (36-T.Young).
- (1:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short right to 29-D.Johnson to BAL 48 for -1 yards (99-T.Jernigan). CLE-74-C.Erving was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
- (:55) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short left to 82-G.Barnidge to BAL 41 for 7 yards (36-T.Young).
- (:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short right to 19-C.Coleman pushed ob at BAL 30 for 11 yards (21-L.Webb).
- (:20) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass deep middle intended for 11-T.Pryor INTERCEPTED by 57-C.Mosley at BAL 1. 57-C.Mosley to BAL 1 for no gain (11-T.Pryor).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.35 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.70 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.35 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.99 pts |
| Deep post | +0.96 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.92 pts |
| QB keep | +0.80 pts |
| Play action | +0.61 pts |
| Quick out | +0.41 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.33 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.23 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.20 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.64 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.68 pts |
| Outside run | -0.73 pts |
| Inside run | -1.16 pts |
| End-around | -1.28 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.31 pts |
| Spike it | -1.70 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.