Raiders vs Colts — Week 16, 2016
The Raiders took over leading 33-25 with 2:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 33, Colts 25. Raiders won 33-25 — the drive time expired.
Raiders ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 2:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 97.4% for Raiders. Our model starts at 96.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:33) 74-V.Alexander reported in as eligible. 33-D.Washington up the middle to LV 25 for no gain (94-Z.Kerr).
- (2:28) 74-V.Alexander reported in as eligible. 33-D.Washington right guard to LV 27 for 2 yards (44-A.Morrison; 30-R.Melvin).
- (2:22) (Shotgun) 14-M.McGloin pass deep right to 89-A.Cooper to LV 46 for 19 yards (21-V.Davis).
- (1:59) 14-M.McGloin kneels to LV 45 for -1 yards.
- (1:18) 14-M.McGloin kneels to LV 44 for -1 yards.
- (:36) 14-M.McGloin kneels to LV 43 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.84 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.32 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.84 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.52 pts |
| Inside run | -0.67 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.81 pts |
| Quick out | -1.18 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.20 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.21 pts |
| QB keep | -1.52 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.57 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.65 pts |
| Play action | -3.00 pts |
| Curl route | -3.40 pts |
| End-around | -5.39 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.52 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.46 pts |
| Deep post | -9.26 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.36 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.32 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.