Dolphins vs 49ers — Week 12, 2016
The Dolphins took over leading 31-24 with 2:11 left, 1st & 10 at their own 14, 3 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 31, 49ers 24. Dolphins won 31-24 — the drive turned it over.
Dolphins ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 14, 2:11 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 96.7% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 95.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:11) 23-J.Ajayi right tackle to MIA 15 for 1 yard (93-C.Jones, 58-E.Harold).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep left to 14-J.Landry.
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 23-J.Ajayi left guard to MIA 23 for 8 yards (25-J.Ward, 50-N.Bellore).
- (1:50) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 39 yards to SF 38, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.10 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.16 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.10 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -0.76 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.96 pts |
| Quick out | -1.35 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.37 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.37 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.62 pts |
| QB keep | -1.66 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.73 pts |
| Play action | -3.03 pts |
| Curl route | -3.39 pts |
| End-around | -5.39 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.48 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.40 pts |
| Deep post | -9.08 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.26 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.16 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.