Chargers vs Titans — Week 9, 2016
The Chargers took over leading 43-35 with 2:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 43, Titans 35. Chargers won 43-35 — the drive time expired.
Chargers ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 2:45 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 96.7% for Chargers. Our model starts at 95.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:45) 28-M.Gordon right end to LAC 25 for no gain (55-S.Spence).
- (2:40) 27-K.Farrow left end to LAC 28 for 3 yards (99-J.Casey).
- (2:37) 28-M.Gordon left tackle ran ob at TEN 25 for 47 yards (30-J.McCourty).
- (2:27) 28-M.Gordon up the middle to TEN 22 for 3 yards (59-W.Woodyard).
- (2:22) 28-M.Gordon up the middle to TEN 16 for 6 yards (99-J.Casey).
- (2:00) 28-M.Gordon up the middle to TEN 14 for 2 yards (59-W.Woodyard).
- (1:14) 17-P.Rivers kneels to TEN 16 for -2 yards.
- (:37) 17-P.Rivers kneels to TEN 16 for no gain.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.98 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.20 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.98 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.45 pts |
| Inside run | -0.62 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.75 pts |
| Quick out | -1.13 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.15 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.17 pts |
| QB keep | -1.44 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.51 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.59 pts |
| Play action | -2.92 pts |
| Curl route | -3.30 pts |
| End-around | -5.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.45 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.37 pts |
| Deep post | -9.14 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.25 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.20 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.