Chargers vs Raiders — Week 15, 2016
The Chargers took over trailing 19-16 with 2:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 14, 1 timeout in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 16, Raiders 19. Raiders won 19-16 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Chargers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 14, 2:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 33.4% for Chargers. Our model starts at 26.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:35) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to 12-T.Benjamin.
- (2:31) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at LAC 9 for -5 yards (51-B.Irvin).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short middle (75-D.Latham) [52-K.Mack].
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right intended for 15-D.Inman INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Nelson [51-B.Irvin] at LAC 28. 27-R.Nelson to LAC 13 for 15 yards (15-D.Inman).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.21 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-2.80 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.21 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.01 pts |
| Deep post | -0.23 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.33 pts |
| Play action | -0.55 pts |
| QB keep | -0.63 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.91 pts |
| Quick out | -0.97 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.02 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.03 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.24 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.59 pts |
| Outside run | -1.90 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.18 pts |
| Inside run | -2.22 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.23 pts |
| Spike it | -2.35 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.51 pts |
| End-around | -2.80 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.