Chargers vs Raiders — Week 5, 2016
The Chargers took over trailing 34-31 with 4:08 left, 1st & 10 at their own 33, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 31, Raiders 34. Raiders won 34-31 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Chargers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 33, 4:08 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 33.8% for Chargers. Our model starts at 35.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:08) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short left to 85-A.Gates.
- (4:03) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 12-T.Benjamin pushed ob at LAC 48 for 15 yards (42-K.Joseph).
- (3:56) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 16-Ty.Williams ran ob at LV 27 for 25 yards.
- (3:50) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 12-T.Benjamin to LV 19 for 8 yards (25-D.Hayden).
- (3:10) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short left to 12-T.Benjamin.
- (3:05) (Shotgun) 28-M.Gordon up the middle to LV 18 for 1 yard (95-J.Ward).
- (2:07) (Field Goal formation) 8-D.Kaser FUMBLES (Aborted) at LV 26, recovered by LAC-84-S.McGrath at LV 35. 84-S.McGrath to LV 35 for no gain (39-K.McGill).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.20 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-2.74 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.20 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.12 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.01 pts |
| QB keep | +0.99 pts |
| Quick out | +0.42 pts |
| Play action | +0.41 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.30 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.00 pts |
| Outside run | -0.36 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.56 pts |
| Deep post | -0.64 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.70 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.86 pts |
| Inside run | -1.11 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
| End-around | -1.90 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.28 pts |
| Spike it | -2.71 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.74 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.