Steelers vs Ravens — Week 16, 2016
The Steelers took over trailing 27-24 with 1:18 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 31, Ravens 27. Steelers won 31-27 — the drive scored.
Steelers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 1:18 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.3% for Steelers. Our model starts at 26.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:18) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 81-J.James to PIT 28 for 3 yards (21-L.Webb).
- (1:14) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 84-A.Brown ran ob at PIT 36 for 8 yards.
- (1:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 81-J.James to BAL 48 for 16 yards (57-C.Mosley) [58-E.Dumervil].
- (1:02) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 15-D.Ayers pushed ob at BAL 39 for 9 yards (36-T.Young).
- (:57) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 17-E.Rogers to BAL 19 for 20 yards (36-T.Young).
- (:41) 7-B.Roethlisberger spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:41) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 83-C.Hamilton to BAL 13 for 6 yards (54-Z.Orr).
- (:32) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 81-J.James to BAL 4 for 9 yards (54-Z.Orr).
- (:14) 7-B.Roethlisberger spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:13) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 84-A.Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.25 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.37 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.25 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.73 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.62 pts |
| QB keep | +1.44 pts |
| Deep post | +1.44 pts |
| Play action | +1.16 pts |
| Quick out | +0.83 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.71 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.52 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.47 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Outside run | -0.76 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.88 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.90 pts |
| Inside run | -1.46 pts |
| End-around | -1.66 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.69 pts |
| Spike it | -2.37 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.