Chargers vs Falcons — Week 7, 2016
The Chargers took over trailing 30-27 with 3:32 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 30, Falcons 30. Tied 30-30 — the drive scored.
Chargers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 35, 3:32 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.7% for Chargers. Our model starts at 35.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:32) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 16-Ty.Williams to LAC 44 for 9 yards (23-R.Alford; 22-K.Neal).
- (2:52) (Shotgun) 28-M.Gordon left tackle to LAC 44 for no gain (99-A.Clayborn).
- (2:27) (Shotgun) 28-M.Gordon left guard to LAC 43 for -1 yards (99-A.Clayborn, 93-D.Freeney).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 85-A.Gates to LAC 46 for 3 yards (45-D.Jones).
- (1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 15-D.Inman to ATL 37 for 17 yards (34-B.Poole).
- (:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short left to 15-D.Inman.
- (:52) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 12-T.Benjamin ran ob at ATL 28 for 9 yards (45-D.Jones).
- (:46) 28-M.Gordon right tackle to ATL 15 for 13 yards (37-R.Allen).
- (:36) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short left to 85-A.Gates.
- (:32) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short left to 33-D.McCluster (91-C.Upshaw).
- (:28) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short middle to 85-A.Gates (23-R.Alford).
- (:22) 2-J.Lambo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.46 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.74 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.46 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.29 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.21 pts |
| QB keep | +1.15 pts |
| Play action | +0.59 pts |
| Quick out | +0.54 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.42 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.09 pts |
| Deep post | -0.34 pts |
| Outside run | -0.36 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -1.15 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| End-around | -1.89 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.14 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.56 pts |
| Spike it | -2.74 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.