Commanders vs Bengals — Week 8, 2016
The Commanders took over trailing 27-24 with 3:15 left, 1st & 10 at their own 33, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 27, Bengals 27. Tied 27-27 — the drive scored.
Commanders ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 33, 3:15 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.8% for Commanders. Our model starts at 34.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:15) 25-C.Thompson left end to WAS 37 for 4 yards (55-V.Burfict).
- (2:41) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 25-C.Thompson pushed ob at WAS 44 for 7 yards (24-A.Jones).
- (2:37) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 14-R.Grant to CIN 39 for 17 yards (36-S.Williams).
- (2:07) (Shotgun) 25-C.Thompson left tackle to CIN 42 for -3 yards (97-G.Atkins).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 86-J.Reed.
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 80-J.Crowder to CIN 22 for 20 yards (27-D.Kirkpatrick).
- (1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 13-M.Harris.
- (1:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 86-J.Reed (96-C.Dunlap).
- (1:16) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 80-J.Crowder.
- (1:11) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.58 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.70 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.58 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.35 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.30 pts |
| QB keep | +1.20 pts |
| Play action | +0.68 pts |
| Quick out | +0.59 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.47 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.13 pts |
| Deep post | -0.09 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.36 pts |
| Outside run | -0.41 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -1.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.52 pts |
| End-around | -1.85 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.96 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.33 pts |
| Spike it | -2.70 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.