Cardinals vs Seahawks — Week 16, 2016
The Cardinals took over leading 31-25 with 2:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 14, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 34, Seahawks 31. Cardinals won 34-31 — the drive turned it over.
Cardinals ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 14, 2:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 87.7% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 91.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:44) 31-D.Johnson right end to ARI 12 for -2 yards (31-K.Chancellor).
- (2:39) 3-C.Palmer pass short left to 11-L.Fitzgerald pushed ob at ARI 16 for 4 yards (25-R.Sherman).
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass incomplete short right to 31-D.Johnson [50-K.Wright].
- (2:31) 6-M.Wile punts 39 yards to SEA 45, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-46-A.Brewer. PENALTY on ARI-33-K.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 45.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.56 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.60 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.56 pts |
| Outside run | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -0.74 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.74 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.85 pts |
| Quick out | -1.31 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.34 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.35 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.43 pts |
| QB keep | -1.51 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.68 pts |
| Play action | -2.78 pts |
| Curl route | -3.04 pts |
| End-around | -5.09 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.17 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.02 pts |
| Deep post | -8.47 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.80 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.60 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.