Bears vs Jaguars — Week 6, 2016
The Bears took over leading 16-10 with 4:59 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Bears 16, Jaguars 17. Jaguars won 17-16 — the drive turned it over.
Bears ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:59 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 87.4% for Bears. Our model starts at 86.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:59) 25-K.Carey right tackle to CHI 33 for 8 yards (21-P.Amukamara).
- (4:13) 2-B.Hoyer FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 32, and recovers at CHI 32. 2-B.Hoyer to CHI 28 for -4 yards (50-T.Smith).
- (3:29) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass incomplete short right to 86-Z.Miller.
- (3:25) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to JAX 22, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-M.Lee.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.47 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.05 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.21 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.56 pts |
| Inside run | -0.59 pts |
| Quick out | -0.89 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.94 pts |
| QB keep | -0.96 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.01 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.14 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.48 pts |
| Play action | -2.39 pts |
| Curl route | -2.56 pts |
| End-around | -4.62 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.83 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.62 pts |
| Deep post | -7.95 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.26 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.05 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.