Titans vs Bears — Week 12, 2016
The Titans took over leading 27-21 with 3:00 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Titans 27, Bears 21. Titans won 27-21 — the drive turned it over.
Titans ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 17, 3:00 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 88.1% for Titans. Our model starts at 90.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:00) 71-D.Kelly reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry left end to TEN 22 for 5 yards (22-C.LeBlanc).
- (2:52) 22-D.Henry right guard to TEN 25 for 3 yards (69-C.Wilson). CHI-59-D.Trevathan was injured during the play.
- (2:10) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 29-D.Murray to TEN 26 for 1 yard (91-E.Goldman).
- (2:06) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 43 yards to CHI 31, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-E.Royal to CHI 35 for 4 yards (31-K.Byard).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.54 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.51 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.54 pts |
| Outside run | -0.32 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.57 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -0.64 pts |
| Quick out | -1.08 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.11 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.14 pts |
| QB keep | -1.24 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.27 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Play action | -2.61 pts |
| Curl route | -2.85 pts |
| End-around | -4.93 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.06 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.90 pts |
| Deep post | -8.38 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.67 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.51 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.