Chiefs vs Saints — Week 7, 2016
The Chiefs took over leading 24-21 with 2:30 left, 1st & 10 at the Saints 46, 1 timeout in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 27, Saints 21. Chiefs won 27-21 — the drive scored.
Chiefs ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. Near midfield, 2:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 85.7% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 86.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:30) 32-S.Ware left tackle to NO 49 for -3 yards (94-C.Jordan).
- (2:26) 10-T.Hill right end pushed ob at NO 44 for 5 yards (48-V.Bell; 54-N.Stupar). PENALTY on NO-90-N.Fairley, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NO 44.
- (2:18) 35-C.West up the middle to NO 28 for 1 yard (95-T.Davison).
- (2:00) 32-S.Ware up the middle to NO 24 for 4 yards (41-R.Harper).
- (1:17) 32-S.Ware up the middle to NO 23 for 1 yard (99-P.Kruger).
- (:33) 5-C.Santos 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.59 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.66 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.59 pts |
| Outside run | +0.12 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| Inside run | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| QB keep | -0.50 pts |
| Quick out | -0.52 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.58 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.64 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.67 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.24 pts |
| Play action | -1.91 pts |
| Curl route | -1.99 pts |
| End-around | -4.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.40 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.17 pts |
| Deep post | -7.43 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.86 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.66 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.