Seahawks vs Bills — Week 9, 2016
The Seahawks took over leading 31-25 with 3:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 18, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 31, Bills 25. Seahawks won 31-25 — the drive turned it over.
Seahawks ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 18, 3:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 88.4% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 89.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:14) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 88-J.Graham to SEA 17 for -1 yards (20-C.Graham).
- (3:04) 22-C.Prosise right tackle to SEA 20 for 3 yards (52-P.Brown; 53-Z.Brown).
- (2:59) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 11 for -9 yards (95-K.Williams).
- (2:53) 9-J.Ryan punts 62 yards to BUF 27, Center-48-N.Frese. 22-R.Bush to BUF 40 for 13 yards (58-K.Pierre-Louis; 27-N.Thorpe).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.65 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.34 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.65 pts |
| Outside run | -0.22 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.51 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| Inside run | -0.57 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Quick out | -0.97 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.05 pts |
| QB keep | -1.10 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.16 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.48 pts |
| Play action | -2.48 pts |
| Curl route | -2.70 pts |
| End-around | -4.79 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.94 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.77 pts |
| Deep post | -8.20 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.51 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.34 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.