Chiefs vs Titans — Week 15, 2016
The Chiefs took over leading 17-16 with 3:12 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 17, Titans 19. Titans won 19-17 — the drive turned it over.
Chiefs ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 25, 3:12 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 74.2% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 63.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:12) 32-S.Ware left end to KC 30 for 5 yards (99-J.Casey).
- (2:25) 35-C.West up the middle to KC 33 for 3 yards (94-Au.Johnson).
- (2:00) 11-A.Smith right end to KC 33 for no gain (96-A.Woods).
- (1:16) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to TEN 25, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.03 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.22 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.03 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.85 pts |
| QB keep | +0.77 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.64 pts |
| Outside run | +0.30 pts |
| Quick out | +0.27 pts |
| Curl route | +0.21 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.14 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.11 pts |
| Play action | -0.32 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.58 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.36 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.81 pts |
| End-around | -2.85 pts |
| Deep post | -3.78 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.98 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.22 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.