Giants vs Bengals — Week 10, 2016
The Giants took over leading 21-20 with 3:01 left, 1st & 10 at their own 41, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Giants 21, Bengals 20. Giants won 21-20 — the drive time expired.
Giants ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 41, 3:01 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 76.2% for Giants. Our model starts at 71.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:01) 23-R.Jennings left tackle to NYG 42 for 1 yard (57-V.Rey, 94-D.Peko).
- (2:56) 23-R.Jennings left tackle to NYG 45 for 3 yards (90-M.Johnson, 57-V.Rey).
- (2:50) (Shotgun) 23-R.Jennings up the middle to CIN 46 for 9 yards (97-G.Atkins, 43-G.Iloka). CIN-43-G.Iloka was injured during the play.
- (2:07) 23-R.Jennings left guard to CIN 46 for no gain (55-V.Burfict, 57-V.Rey).
- (2:00) 23-R.Jennings up the middle to CIN 21 for 25 yards (21-D.Dennard).
- (1:24) 10-E.Manning kneels to CIN 22 for -1 yards.
- (:34) 10-E.Manning kneels to CIN 23 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.23 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.35 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.23 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.79 pts |
| QB keep | +0.46 pts |
| Outside run | +0.33 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.31 pts |
| Quick out | +0.08 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.24 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| Curl route | -0.40 pts |
| Inside run | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.51 pts |
| Play action | -0.76 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.99 pts |
| End-around | -3.27 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.54 pts |
| Deep post | -4.94 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.90 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.35 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.