Broncos vs Panthers — Week 1, 2016
The Broncos took over leading 21-20 with 4:21 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 21, Panthers 20. Broncos won 21-20 — the drive turned it over.
Broncos ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 25, 4:21 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 72.7% for Broncos. Our model starts at 61.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:21) 13-T.Siemian pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Thomas.
- (4:17) 22-C.Anderson right tackle to DEN 28 for 3 yards (59-L.Kuechly).
- (3:36) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian sacked at DEN 18 for -10 yards (33-T.Boston).
- (3:17) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to CAR 40, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-57-D.Watson.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.91 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.26 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.91 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.74 pts |
| QB keep | +0.50 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.32 pts |
| Outside run | +0.12 pts |
| Quick out | +0.04 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.08 pts |
| Curl route | -0.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.31 pts |
| Play action | -0.59 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.61 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.70 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.56 pts |
| End-around | -2.93 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.99 pts |
| Deep post | -3.96 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.06 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.26 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.