Rams vs Jets — Week 10, 2016
The Rams took over leading 9-6 with 4:46 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Rams 9, Jets 6. Rams won 9-6 — the drive turned it over.
Rams ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 20, 4:46 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 73.7% for Rams. Our model starts at 73.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:46) (Shotgun) 30-T.Gurley left guard to LA 22 for 2 yards (96-M.Wilkerson).
- (4:10) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass short left to 30-T.Gurley pushed ob at LA 30 for 8 yards (25-C.Pryor).
- (3:58) (Shotgun) 23-B.Cunningham right end to LA 26 for 6 yards (52-D.Harris).
- (3:50) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass short middle to 23-B.Cunningham to LA 23 for -3 yards (52-D.Harris).
- (3:45) (Shotgun) 23-B.Cunningham up the middle to LA 28 for 5 yards (91-S.Richardson; 45-R.Miles).
- (3:01) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to NYJ 23, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.69 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.04 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.69 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.21 pts |
| Outside run | +0.02 pts |
| QB keep | -0.14 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.36 pts |
| Quick out | -0.39 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.64 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.64 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.65 pts |
| Curl route | -1.23 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.39 pts |
| Play action | -1.42 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.64 pts |
| End-around | -3.67 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.23 pts |
| Deep post | -5.82 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.55 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.04 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.