Titans vs Broncos — Week 14, 2016
The Titans took over leading 13-10 with 4:22 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Titans 13, Broncos 10. Titans won 13-10 — the drive turned it over.
Titans ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 20, 4:22 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 77.7% for Titans. Our model starts at 73.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:22) 29-D.Murray right tackle to TEN 25 for 5 yards (58-V.Miller).
- (3:37) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 18-R.Matthews to DEN 49 for 26 yards (21-A.Talib).
- (2:51) 22-D.Henry up the middle to DEN 49 for no gain (58-V.Miller; 50-Z.Anderson).
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short left to 82-D.Walker.
- (2:43) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep right to 18-R.Matthews.
- (2:36) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to DEN 2, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-10-T.McBride.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.80 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.93 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.80 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.33 pts |
| Outside run | +0.13 pts |
| QB keep | -0.01 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.22 pts |
| Quick out | -0.29 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.39 pts |
| Inside run | -0.55 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.55 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.58 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Curl route | -1.07 pts |
| Play action | -1.28 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.52 pts |
| End-around | -3.56 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.10 pts |
| Deep post | -5.67 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.43 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.93 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.