Texans vs Jaguars — Week 10, 2016
The Texans took over leading 24-21 with 2:12 left, 1st & 10 at their own 8, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Texans 24, Jaguars 21. Texans won 24-21 — the drive time expired.
Texans ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. Backed up at their own 8, 2:12 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 76.6% for Texans. Our model starts at 79.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:12) 26-L.Miller up the middle to HOU 11 for 3 yards (93-T.Alualu).
- (2:08) 26-L.Miller up the middle to HOU 13 for 2 yards (55-D.Skuta).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins to HOU 23 for 10 yards (20-J.Ramsey).
- (1:17) 26-L.Miller right end to HOU 23 for no gain (90-M.Jackson).
- (1:10) 26-L.Miller up the middle to HOU 24 for 1 yard (55-D.Skuta).
- (:27) 26-L.Miller right end to HOU 26 for 2 yards (93-T.Alualu).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.81 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.32 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.81 pts |
| Outside run | -0.84 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.85 pts |
| Inside run | -1.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.18 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.39 pts |
| Quick out | -1.64 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.69 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.72 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.76 pts |
| QB keep | -1.81 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.89 pts |
| Curl route | -2.98 pts |
| Play action | -3.00 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.79 pts |
| End-around | -4.97 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.50 pts |
| Deep post | -7.02 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.04 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.32 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.