Buccaneers vs Cowboys — Week 15, 2016
The Buccaneers took over trailing 26-20 with 2:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 20, Cowboys 26. Cowboys won 26-20 — the drive turned it over.
Buccaneers ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 2:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 16.3% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 13.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:58) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston sacked at TB 17 for -8 yards (95-D.Irving).
- (2:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 84-C.Brate.
- (2:24) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Evans. Pass incomplete on a deep out pattern.
- (2:16) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 53 yards to DAL 30, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 13-L.Whitehead.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.16 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.46 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.16 pts |
| Deep post | +0.92 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.82 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.76 pts |
| QB keep | +0.64 pts |
| Play action | +0.49 pts |
| Quick out | +0.32 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.25 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.22 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.20 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.48 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.56 pts |
| Outside run | -0.78 pts |
| Inside run | -1.12 pts |
| End-around | -1.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.24 pts |
| Spike it | -1.46 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.