Vikings vs Commanders — Week 10, 2016
The Vikings took over trailing 26-20 with 2:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 20, Commanders 26. Commanders won 26-20 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Vikings ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 2:31 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 16.1% for Vikings. Our model starts at 11.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:31) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs to MIN 31 for 6 yards (39-D.Whitner).
- (2:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs to MIN 37 for 6 yards (36-S.Cravens).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short left to 14-S.Diggs ran ob at WAS 49 for 14 yards [91-R.Kerrigan].
- (1:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs to WAS 42 for 7 yards (39-D.Whitner).
- (1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs pushed ob at WAS 33 for 9 yards (38-K.Fuller).
- (1:29) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen to WAS 26 for 7 yards (41-W.Blackmon).
- (1:11) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass incomplete short right to 21-J.McKinnon.
- (1:04) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs to WAS 21 for 5 yards (51-W.Compton).
- (:45) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass incomplete deep right to 82-K.Rudolph.
- (:40) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford sacked at WAS 28 for -7 yards (93-T.Murphy).
- (:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass incomplete deep left to 84-C.Patterson [93-T.Murphy]. Penalty on MIN-68-T.Clemmings, Offensive Holding, declined.
- (:11) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford sacked at WAS 42 for -14 yards (94-P.Smith).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.07 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.20 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.07 pts |
| Deep post | +1.00 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.75 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.68 pts |
| QB keep | +0.58 pts |
| Play action | +0.47 pts |
| Quick out | +0.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.30 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.29 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.24 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.03 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.24 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.28 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.37 pts |
| Outside run | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -0.98 pts |
| End-around | -1.00 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.07 pts |
| Spike it | -1.20 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.