49ers vs Cardinals — Week 10, 2016
The 49ers took over trailing 20-13 with 3:13 left, 1st & 10 at their own 43, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 20, Cardinals 23. Cardinals won 23-20 — the drive scored.
49ers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 43, 3:13 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.9% for 49ers. Our model starts at 15.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:13) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep left to 17-J.Kerley pushed ob at ARI 33 for 24 yards (41-M.Cooper).
- (3:05) (No Huddle) 28-C.Hyde up the middle to ARI 31 for 2 yards (93-C.Campbell).
- (2:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short middle to 82-T.Smith [44-M.Golden].
- (2:28) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick scrambles left end ran ob at ARI 12 for 19 yards (41-M.Cooper).
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to 28-C.Hyde [44-M.Golden]. ARI-44-M.Golden was injured during the play.
- (2:14) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short middle to 89-V.McDonald to ARI 4 for 8 yards (21-P.Peterson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.20 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.55 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.20 pts |
| Deep post | +0.90 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.86 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.80 pts |
| QB keep | +0.69 pts |
| Play action | +0.52 pts |
| Quick out | +0.34 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.27 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.21 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.18 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.55 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.62 pts |
| Outside run | -0.78 pts |
| Inside run | -1.15 pts |
| End-around | -1.24 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.28 pts |
| Spike it | -1.55 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.