Titans vs Texans — Week 4, 2016
The Titans took over trailing 27-20 with 4:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 42, 1 timeout in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Titans 20, Texans 27. Texans won 27-20 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Titans ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 42, 4:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.5% for Titans. Our model starts at 16.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:34) 29-D.Murray left tackle to HOU 48 for 10 yards (24-J.Joseph). HOU-24-J.Joseph was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
- (3:57) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep middle to 82-D.Walker.
- (3:51) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 19-T.Sharpe to HOU 43 for 10 yards (55-B.McKinney).
- (3:11) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 13-K.Wright to HOU 32 for 11 yards (21-A.Bouye).
- (2:40) 29-D.Murray left tackle to HOU 28 for 4 yards (27-Q.Demps).
- (2:02) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep right to 80-A.Fasano (29-A.Hal).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short middle to 81-A.Johnson (24-J.Joseph).
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short middle to 81-A.Johnson.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.96 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.61 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.96 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.69 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.68 pts |
| QB keep | +0.61 pts |
| Deep post | +0.42 pts |
| Play action | +0.37 pts |
| Quick out | +0.26 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.19 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.02 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.09 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.57 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.85 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.90 pts |
| Inside run | -0.96 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.11 pts |
| End-around | -1.14 pts |
| Spike it | -1.61 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.