49ers vs Cowboys — Week 4, 2016
The 49ers took over trailing 24-17 with 4:11 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 17, Cowboys 24. Cowboys won 24-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.
49ers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:11 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.9% for 49ers. Our model starts at 12.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:11) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short left to 88-G.Celek to SF 34 for 9 yards (50-S.Lee). Caught at SF 31. 3-yds YAC
- (3:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short right to 17-J.Kerley to SF 41 for 7 yards (30-A.Brown). Caught at SF 41. 0-yds YAC
- (3:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass deep right to 17-J.Kerley to DAL 39 for 20 yards (42-B.Church). Caught at DAl 43. 4-yds YAC
- (2:53) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert right end to DAL 40 for -1 yards (24-M.Claiborne).
- (2:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short left to 17-J.Kerley to DAL 35 for 5 yards (39-B.Carr). Caught at DAL 35; 0-yds YAC
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass incomplete short left to 17-J.Kerley [97-T.McClain].
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short right to 82-T.Smith pushed ob at DAL 32 for 3 yards (24-M.Claiborne). Caught at DAL 32. 0-yds YAC
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.85 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.35 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.85 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.59 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.57 pts |
| Deep post | +0.52 pts |
| QB keep | +0.48 pts |
| Play action | +0.31 pts |
| Quick out | +0.20 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.14 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.02 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.64 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.66 pts |
| Outside run | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.99 pts |
| End-around | -1.10 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.10 pts |
| Spike it | -1.35 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.