Ravens vs Commanders — Week 5, 2016
The Ravens took over trailing 16-10 with 2:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 10, Commanders 16. Commanders won 16-10 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Ravens ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 17, 2:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.3% for Ravens. Our model starts at 11.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 44-K.Juszczyk [92-C.Baker].
- (2:27) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 44-K.Juszczyk to BAL 25 for 8 yards (52-T.Garvin).
- (2:07) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short left to 17-M.Wallace.
- (2:02) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco scrambles left end pushed ob at BAL 31 for 6 yards (20-G.Toler).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 44-K.Juszczyk to BAL 37 for 6 yards (54-M.Foster).
- (1:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 44-K.Juszczyk to BAL 43 for 6 yards (41-W.Blackmon).
- (1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 88-D.Pitta to WAS 47 for 10 yards (54-M.Foster).
- (1:12) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep right to 18-B.Perriman.
- (1:08) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 17-M.Wallace to WAS 34 for 13 yards (29-D.Ihenacho).
- (:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 17-M.Wallace ran ob at WAS 23 for 11 yards. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (:39) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 18-B.Perriman for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep right to 18-B.Perriman.
- (:33) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 18-B.Perriman ran ob at WAS 21 for 2 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.63 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.38 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.63 pts |
| Curl route | +0.59 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.33 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.19 pts |
| Play action | +0.05 pts |
| QB keep | +0.05 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.04 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.06 pts |
| Quick out | -0.16 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.20 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.37 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.53 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.61 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.67 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.68 pts |
| Outside run | -1.07 pts |
| Spike it | -1.21 pts |
| Inside run | -1.30 pts |
| End-around | -1.35 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.38 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.